Small-Screen Shopping Set To Dominate 2023 Holiday Spending

One of the first forecasts for the upcoming 2023 holiday shopping period predicts that mobile devices will overtake desktop ones for e-commerce for the first time. Adobe Inc., in its Nov. 1-to-Dec. 31 holiday-shopping forecast, released Thursday, forecasts that U.S. online holiday sales will reach $221.8 billion, a 4.8% increase year-over-year.

San Jose, Calif.-based Adobe predicts that 5.1% of this year’s online holiday shopping will happen on mobile devices and total $113 billion, up 13.7% from the same period a year ago. Usage is expected to peak when consumers are likely with friends and family, such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. Adobe did not provide an outlook last year for shopping on mobile devices.

Notable drivers for online shopping will be buy now, pay later services and discounts. Adobe says BNPL, which typically lets consumers make interest-free installment payments for purchases, will account for $17 billion in online spending, up 16.9% from $14.5 billion in 2022.

BNPL has already seen strong traction this year, Adobe says. “Thus far in 2023, BNPL users have spent $46.7 billion, up a significant 14.7% [year-over-year] and $6 billion more than during the same period last year. BNPL growth has been driven by categories including groceries, where its share of spending grew by a staggering 37.5% YoY.”

Adobe also expects retailers to offer record discounts this holiday season, with some as much as 35% off the listed price. Discounts are expected to be strongest in toys, electronics, and apparel, with toy discounts peaking at 35%, electronics as high as 30%, and 25% for apparel.

“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe. “Buy now, pay later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices, where over half of online spending will take place.”

Akin to the seemingly earlier and earlier appearance of holiday items showing up in stores, online holiday shopping is expected to start earlier this year, Adobe says. Kicking it off is a second Prime Day event from e-commerce juggernaut Amazon.com Inc. that offers significant discounts and deals. It holds a similar event in the summer. Next week’s Prime Day event and similar ones will entice consumers to start their shopping, Adobe says.

Adobe’s forecast includes data from more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million shopkeeping units, and 18 product categories.