Average ATM Withdrawals Are Bigger, But Transactions Still Lag Pre-Pandemic Levels

ATM traffic worldwide is on the rebound after two years of pandemic, but it will take years for cash withdrawal transactions to return to 2019 levels, according to “Global ATM Markets and Forecasts to 2027,” a report released this week by RBR, a London-based research firm.

ATM activity declined in most markets globally as Covid lockdowns and other pandemic-related factors impacted consumer behavior. But ATM activity also declined because of consumers’ shift to digital payment options, which left them in less need of frequent trips to the ATM for cash, RBR’s report says. Still, while withdrawals are down since 2019, the average withdrawal is getting larger.

RBR’s numbers indicate users around the world performed 68.9 billion cash withdrawals at ATMs last year, an uptick of 0.4% from 2020. But those withdrawals totaled $14.5 trillion, up from $14.2 trillion, a 2.2% rise. “In some sense, 2021 was a good year in terms of ATM withdrawals, as numbers returned to growth and value picked up even more,” noted Rowan Berridge, who led the research for RBR, in a statement.

But it will apparently take about five years for ATM withdrawal values to return to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of withdrawals will stall lag. RBR forecasts total withdrawal value will hit $17.7 trillion by 2027, finally exceeding the $16.8 trillion recorded in 2019. Even then, with the trend toward higher average withdrawals, transactions will total 72.6 billion, well below the 2019 total of 84.7 billion.

Here, RBR sees an impact from the onset in many markets of digital-payment services, which reduce the need to carry larger wads of cash. It is telling, however, how far below 2019 the figures still are. “The outlook for cash withdrawals is positive, although the strength of cashless payments will apply the brakes to a full recovery,” says Berridge.

Worldwide inflation, too, will have an impact. The biggest increases in withdrawal values, for example, will come in Latin America in a trend “closely linked to high inflation,” RBR says.