Adapting to Volatile Markets With ‘Long TAIL’ Thinking

How crises like Covid, and now perhaps tariffs, can be catalysts for business-to-business payments innovation.

Stormy trade winds, political uncertainty, protectionist policies, and talk of a global recession are swirling around us. While we are unlikely to be heading toward upheaval of Covid-19 proportions, the signs of economic turbulence are unmistakable. These topics came up at a recent Crossroads salon, where a senior economist from a major insurer highlighted the sharp rise in U.S. tariffs from 2.5% to more than 20%, the highest in a century. As the economist pointed out “Unprecedented U.S. tariffs are slowing global growth, while Europe sees some bright spots with German investment. Businesses must adapt to survive this volatile landscape.”

While the current situation is undoubtedly concerning, we have weathered significant challenges before. Many organizations used the Covid crisis not merely to adapt, but to rethink their operations, reinvent their models, and build lasting resilience. In times of uncertainty, it is those businesses that embrace innovation and demonstrate resilience that ultimately endure and thrive.

During Covid, businesses quickly realized they couldn’t operate as they had been and made a decisive, significant push into digital infrastructure. McKinsey famously reported that companies achieved three to four years’ worth of digital transformation in the first six months of the pandemic—in customer experience, supply chains, and internal operations.

Why? Because the urgency of the moment cut through bureaucracy and drove a sharp focus on immediate problem-solving and bold, swift action. McKinsey found respondents expected most of these changes to be long-lasting, and were making the kinds of investments to ensure they were on a long-term path for success.

Tariffs may serve as the immediate pressure point, but the broader opportunity remains consistent: to fundamentally reimagine how we operate, how we sell, how we serve our buyers, and how we cultivate loyalty, namely fostering long-term, mutually beneficial relationships that extend well beyond the traditional vendor-customer dynamic.

Mitigating Disruptive Effects

Now is the time to support customers in formulating practical responses to today’s most pressing questions: What is unpredictable and beyond our control? What is unpredictable yet manageable? And, perhaps most important, what is relatively predictable and well within our capacity to address?

In my view, the emerging economic division and the repercussions of current U.S. economic policy distinctly align with that third category. While we are unable to prevent the imposition of tariffs, we can strategically prepare for the disruption.

During the pandemic, while working as an analyst at Forrester Research, I interviewed key industry players across airlines, manufacturing, and retail to understand what set leaders apart from laggards. From these conversations, three traits stood out: adaptiveness, creativity, and resilience. Building on these insights and other recent research, and integrating our research on buyer-seller loyalty, we developed the “Long TAIL” framework: Trusted, Adaptive, Intelligent, and Localized.

Let’s look at each element of the framework in turn.

Trust is the cornerstone of B2B commerce. Our recent study with 300 B2B buyers in the U.S. and U.K. found trust was the top factor when choosing suppliers—outranking price and payment terms.

At the recent salon, an e-commerce leader from a major hardware manufacturer summed it up: “We know that trust scales much better than features. We can build that trust on a basic service, and that’s going to be far more healthy than doing lots of [product] features.”

In uncertain times, building trust must be your focus. Strengthen relationships by checking in regularly, understanding how customers face challenges like shifting supply chains or inventory issues, and going beyond with real solutions. Show commitment with real solutions, such as credit flexibility or rapid onboarding for new buyers. “Ready credit” to stock up can boost agility and signal you’re in their corner. Be the partner who steps up and says, “We see your costs rising, and we’re here to help.”

Bold Pivots

Remember how airlines swiftly pivoted passenger routes into cargo operations during the pandemic? Or how retailers transformed stores into distribution hubs? These adaptations and responses were only possible because players had built flexible infrastructure, that is, systems capable of adapting to new challenges rather than being so rigid they couldn’t experiment in tough times.

McKinsey’s research on digital transformation revealed not only a significant acceleration in the adoption of digital technologies during Covid, but also a remarkable increase in the share of digital or digitally enabled products in company portfolios—jumping ahead by an estimated seven years over that period.

The same holds true today. Those who can quickly adjust pricing, offer trade credit, and streamline onboarding will be best positioned to capture market share. Order-to-cash workflows, in particular, offer huge potential. McKinsey found that every $1 invested here can yield up to $6 in returns.

Whether you’re a consultant in this space or simply looking for concrete ROI, this is where to focus your efforts.

The AI Impact

The widespread accessibility of AI has changed the game. Tools like ChatGPT, Google NotebookLM, and specialized AI assistants now empower companies to map buyer journeys, analyze how deals have shifted pre- and post-tariff, and pinpoint opportunities for optimization or protection using AI and GenAI.

By uncovering friction points—such as pricing thresholds, sourcing changes, abandoned carts, and more—businesses gain crucial insights to intervene where it matters most, easing challenges before they escalate.

This is especially vital in embedded finance. As payment expectations evolve, frictionless experiences aren’t just a nice-to-have. They’re the new baseline.

Local Partners

During the early days of Covid, businesses quickly realized the risks of relying too heavily on single-region sourcing. We’re likely to see similar shifts now. A recent Gartner survey found that 51% of global supply-chain leaders believe they could regionalize at least 25% of their supply chain within 12 months, if needed.

Localization can be a powerful strategy. But it’s more than just cutting costs or speeding up shipping. It’s about building trust through proximity. Nearshoring and supplier diversification reduce geopolitical risks and increase agility.

There’s also a psychological advantage. Buyers tend to trust suppliers who are nearby or culturally aligned. Whether it’s speaking the same language or sharing similar values, that closeness breeds confidence.

But beware. Localization isn’t easy. For example, a Chinese e-commerce site requires more than just translation. It demands different formatting, detailed product info, and authentic local reviews to truly resonate.

In summary, experience shows that both businesses and consumers are remarkably adaptable. So, let’s take those crisis-driven lessons and use them to adjust to the new normal, while also seeking opportunities to accelerate innovation and revive transformation projects that may have been sidelined.

By nature, a crisis rewards bold thinking and punishes complacency. Let’s not waste this opportunity!

—Allen Bonde is chief marketing officer for business-to-business payments provider TreviPay.